Recently, multiple automotive industry forums were held on the same day, but undoubtedly the three questions raised by Fu Yuwu, Honorary Chairman of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, during the keynote speech on the theme of "Automotive Power and Independent Innovation" at the 2018 SAECCE Academician Forum were the most influential.

He reviewed in recent years that "the Chinese government or relevant institutions have successively issued a series of automotive industry plans, policies, roadmaps, etc., but the core is the transformation and upgrading of the industry, with a focus on energy-saving and new energy vehicles

He said, "Currently, the development of the automotive industry still needs to respect objective laws. Technological revolution and industrial transformation have made China's automotive industry full of vitality and energy, bringing unlimited imagination. However, while developing rapidly, we have also seen some impetuous phenomena and practices that violate objective laws. We must be sufficiently vigilant to make the industry healthier, more coordinated, and sustainable

Afterwards, he raised three questions at the venue:

The industry needs to consider whether energy-saving vehicles should be diversified?

Should new energy vehicles be diversified

Should intelligent networking be diversified

After asking the question, he gave his own answer: "The answer is yes: diversity conforms to objective laws

Fu Yuwu's three questions undoubtedly question the pure electric roadmap of China's automotive industry established since two years ago, as well as the irrational trend of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles emerging domestically.

Fu Yuwu believes that this irrational trend is not unrelated to the blind investment of local governments: "Local governments must do everything possible to curb the impulse to launch vehicle projects. This round of car fever is strongly related to the blind promotion of local governments, and the GDP theory can be put on hold

He said, "After the establishment of the pure electric vehicle route, there have been rumors of banning the sale of fuel vehicles, which raises a question: do we still need to improve our engine technology and upgrade our technology

For this reason, his answer is that the automotive industry is facing transformation and upgrading today, which requires upgrading in the process of transformation and upgrading, and cannot just talk about one aspect. Traditional cars must make up for their shortcomings, and upgrading energy-saving and new energy vehicles must be done with both hands, both hands must be strong.

Of course, the technology of engines needs to continue to be invested. Enterprises are the mainstay of the market and innovation, and the technological route should fully respect the choices of enterprises. At the same time, he believes that safety, energy conservation, and environmental protection are the eternal themes of the development of the automotive industry, and among these three themes, safety always ranks first. Traditional cars are like this, so are electric cars, and intelligent connected cars are even more so. Cars are different from other species as they are a means of transportation and are closely related to human life. Various technical standards, laws, regulations, etc. are determined around these three main themes. Security has absolute veto power over any technological route.

As for the investment impulse of local governments, he said, "Capital intensive, technology intensive, and labor-intensive are the three major characteristics of the automotive industry. These three intensives are still the laws of the automotive industry. To understand the automotive industry, one must understand the three intensives, and have a sense of awe towards them. Entering the automotive industry requires great caution

The background of his speech is that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2019 is about to be implemented, and the dual credit policy will enter the formal mandatory trading period. In 2018, numerous pure electric vehicles entered the market in China, leading the world in pure electric sales and occupying half of the market share. This year's sales are expected to exceed 1.2 million units.

However, at the same time, the questioning of whether new energy is specifically pure electric vehicles is also growing louder.

In the summer that just passed, according to incomplete statistics, there were over 15 accidents exposed in August and September alone, and many mainstream brands of new energy vehicles were not spared. According to data cited by some media, there have been no less than 70 cases of electric vehicle spontaneous combustion since 2018. At the same time, the range of electric vehicles on the market does not match their advertising, and it is very common for manufacturers to exaggerate their advertising.

Both the user group and the expert group have different opinions on the pure electric vehicle route.

On September 5, 2018, Liu Ke, Vice President of the National Thousand Talents Program Friendship Association, said very directly at the forum: "It is nonsense for the Chinese automotive industry to overtake through the curve of electric vehicles. Because the technology direction is not chosen correctly, there is no breakthrough in battery technology, and electric vehicles will not become the mainstream in the future

At the "Automotive Think Tank Establishment Conference and 2018 Intelligent China Automotive Development Seminar" jointly hosted by the Hunan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, China Automotive News Agency, and Xiangtan Municipal People's Government on October 25th, Wang Binggang, the leader of the expert group of the National Clean Vehicle Action Coordination Leadership Group, also bluntly stated, "It is expected that electric vehicles will only be suitable for urban transportation in the next ten years or more, while fuel vehicles will still play an important role in transportation

His main argument is that there is a huge bottleneck in battery technology.

He said, 'In the short term, by 2020, the energy density of battery cells is expected to exceed 300Wh/kg.';

In the medium term, from 2025 to 2030, the energy density may exceed 400Wh/kg, but currently this value is still in the laboratory stage, and industrialization is hopeless by 2025;

In the long run, after 2030, the development of new technologies such as lithium sulfur batteries and lithium air batteries is expected to increase energy density to over 500Wh/kg. However, currently there are too many unknown factors, and the prospects for industrialization are bleak.

In the next 10 years or even longer, we will focus on batteries with an energy density of around 300Wh/kg, and the industrialization prospects of new power battery technologies with higher energy densities are unknown

Based on this judgment, he believes that "electric vehicles are temporarily not suitable for intercity transportation. In the next decade, electric vehicles will be suitable for intra city transportation and can replace some of the functions of fuel vehicles

For this reason, his proposed solution is: "A battery equipped with Class A and below passenger cars with a single energy density of 300Wh/kg and a system cost of 1 yuan/Wh can already meet the transportation needs within the city. From a comprehensive economic perspective, it can compete with fuel vehicles. However, the driving range of electric vehicles will significantly decrease under high-speed driving conditions, and with the current level of electric vehicle technology, it is difficult to meet the transportation needs between cities

Regarding the fast charging solution, Wang Binggang's opinion is that "the current high specific energy batteries are not suitable for fast charging. Firstly, the battery cycle life is significantly related to the charging rate, and fast charging can cause the high specific energy battery to shorten its lifespan. Secondly, the rapid temperature rise of the battery during fast charging poses a safety hazard

Regarding the rumor of banning the sale of fuel vehicles, Wang Binggang also bluntly disagreed, believing that China did not need to do so.

At today's forum, Cao Xianghong, an academician of the CAE Member, said more clearly that "significant progress has been made and will continue to be made in the technology of internal combustion engines. Automobile manufacturers have made new progress in strengthening the innovation and development of internal combustion engine technology around clean and low-carbon, and the emission of automobile pollutants has declined significantly. At present, the development of new technologies such as advanced combustion, high supercharging and miniaturization, multi system and multi variable control, waste heat recovery, intelligent cylinder shutdown, and in cylinder water spraying has been accelerated. The international internal combustion engine industry has taken the effective thermal efficiency of 60% as the" short-term "goal, and the long-term" limit "is the effective thermal efficiency of 85%."

We must increase investment, strengthen innovation, and solidly promote the progress of internal combustion engine technology. "Cao Xianghong bluntly stated that in the next few decades, it will be an era of diversified automotive power coexisting with internal combustion engine locomotives and new energy vehicles. The production, sales, and market share of EV and FCEV vehicles will gradually increase, but internal combustion engines will still dominate.

Dr. Tan Xuguang, Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, Secretary and Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Chairman of Weichai Group, and Chairman of Weichai Power, who attended the conference for the first time, also made it clear that "for the future of commercial vehicles, traditional energy is still the mainstream power of commercial vehicles, but it faces challenges such as improving thermal efficiency and zero emissions. In the future, the thermal efficiency of diesel engines will increase from the current 46% to 55%, approaching zero emissions; by 2020, Weichai will be the first to introduce engines with thermal efficiency exceeding 50% to society; the pressure of high-pressure common rail systems will be increased to 2500bar, and later to 3000bar; the thermal efficiency of natural gas engines will be increased from the current 39% to 42.5%, striving to reach 45%.

Although it is believed that the future trend of new energy is irreversible, Tan Xuguang's conclusion is that large-scale commercial applications still need time.

The evaluation of Dong Yang, Executive Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, on the pure electric vehicle route determined by the Chinese automotive industry is that "China's automotive technology route is government led, with market competition as a supplement

He said, "The Chinese government provides support for the entire industry chain of new energy vehicles, from production and manufacturing to sales, as well as the construction of batteries and charging stations

The establishment of this route has driven China's most passionate and surging electric vehicle manufacturing boom.

During this period, some of the problems that emerged were actually new problems encountered in the production, manufacturing, and use of new products, just like a series of problems that emerged after cars replaced horse drawn carriages. These problems will be answered and solved by market participants using market competition methods, such as Li Bin's battery swapping system, the one click call charging service, and Li Xiang's exploration in the field of extended range electric vehicles.

The journey of electric vehicles squeezing out fuel vehicles will not be smooth sailing.

And the ultimate choice, as Fu Yuwu said: leave it to the market, let the market choose.

Strong government leadership is not a good thing.

On the other hand, the government should do a better job of internal collaboration. Fu Yuwu said, "Without collaboration, there is no future, and without innovation, there is no way out. Collaboration and innovation are the only options for China's automotive industry to become a strong country. It is worth mentioning that intelligent networking has provided unprecedented opportunities for the Chinese automotive industry, and technology workers have seized the opportunity of intelligent networking under the banner of innovation and forged ahead. However, behind a large number of alliances and innovation centers, there is the support of different government departments, which is admirable. Collaborative innovation is the main theme of today, and we hope that government departments can set an example

In recent years, the government has introduced too many policies in the Chinese automotive industry. In such a market that could have been fully competitive, due to the excessive benefits, has it also attracted more government management?

The government and the market themselves are not contradictory, and electric and gasoline vehicles should not be a life and death choice.